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Coronavirus.
- Thread starter Tilly
- Start date
staffordjas
Well-Known Forumite
I'd feel naked without mine now.
I had a moment of panic this morning whilst driving the car for it's Mot & service. Had emptied it of everything , including spare masks. Such a relief to remember I'd been super-efficient the other day and put one on the back seat ready to enter their office! Was about to do an about turn and go back home for one. (Normally got spares of both disposable and fabric ones in my coat pockets as well, but had washed that last night and forgot to re-stock whilst grabbing it off the clothes maid this morning).
proactive
Enjoying a drop of red.
What an incredibly polite and generous assessment of people like this.
Tilly
Well-Known Forumite
tek-monkey
wanna see my snake?
Test and trace is averaging about 50k per result (tested positive then contacts traced).
Thehooperman
Well-Known Forumite
staffordjas
Well-Known Forumite
Are their any websites that show latest 'R' rate in Stafford ? ( I'm just happening on them in the Stoke paper , or where-ever they pop randomly up)
Did just find a page with Staffordshire 'Hotspots' though , in Stafford it showed Baswich and Milford.
Did just find a page with Staffordshire 'Hotspots' though , in Stafford it showed Baswich and Milford.
Lucy
Well-Known Forumite
I don't think it's done at that low a level.
The problem with R at the moment is whilst it's reducing there's still a lot of cases out there so it doesn't take long to balloon again. Conversely diseases with R rates well above 1 (HIV for example) may hardly increase cases at all.
The problem with R at the moment is whilst it's reducing there's still a lot of cases out there so it doesn't take long to balloon again. Conversely diseases with R rates well above 1 (HIV for example) may hardly increase cases at all.
Withnail
Well-Known Forumite
I will add 'someone with a clear head' to the never-before-being-called-that file.
If you are 'replying' elsewhere then you must have a robust constitution.
Personally i'd just say f*ck 'em - it's much easier just to let this sh*t slide - but we should not do the easy things just because they are easy - no one gets to the Moon with that sort of thinking.
So, to reiterate, we must take as a null hypothesis that a novel pathogen is...
- susceptible to 100% of any population
- there is 0% immunity in that population
Perhaps there will be indications that some sections of the community are more/less affected than others...
There may appear evidence of cross-immunity in some over others...
Some people may appear to have no reaction at all...
- and there have been all sorts of challenges since March that have had all sorts of tests applied, so what do we know?
It depends on who you ask.
Ultimately it boils down to who you trust - i listen to one such as Yeadon and dismiss him because i trust another's judgement. I cannot stress quite enough how i am NOT doing any meaningful research here, i am just reading things, and trusting one source of information over another.
It's a bit weird though - are you saying that i am skewing the data because i'm some sort of death fetishist? Are you denying that you are choosing different purveyors of information because they are saying what you want to hear?
These sorts of questions are as flies buzzing overhead.
There are important questions to answer, though, so let's look at two of them.
Q. Are 100% of people susceptible?
A. Until we can confidently say no, yes.
Q. Is there 30-50% innate immunity in the population like i heard in that BMJ article?
A. Until we can confidently say yes, no.
If 'community immunity' was anywhere even near 30%, we would not be seeing the doubling times that we are seeing in what is undeniably now a 'second wave' - driving infections/admissions/deaths onwards and upwards. Already we are seeing death rates way above ten-year maximums, let alone means, for both October and November.
This after losing more people over April than we would normally lose over the next four months combined.
How is this happening if it is not being driven by a deadly new pathogen? Look at when people generally die in large numbers and you'll see that they usually die in noticeable numbers in December and January, not April, October and November.
One other thing to mention re. Yeadon and his ilk is the whole we-should-just-protect-the-vulnerable schtick. This is just Get Brexit Done easytalk from people who consistently see how easy things are without seeing how easy they aren't. How do we propose to do this? Given that we have already massively failed in protect(ing)-the-vulnerable by kicking them out of hospitals so that they could kill their neighbours in Care Homes, i'm not sure how the things-are-really-easy-because-i-want-them-to-be brigade are angling to make it better.
Somewhere ^up thread we were wondering whether Sweden would be better off with their more laissez-faire response, and that's a no also. Sweden enjoys its second wave along with the rest of us
What do we know from multiple countries using multiple measures with multiple aims to achieve multiple outcomes?
Lockdown works. It is the only thing that works to cut transmission.
Distancing works
NZ is, obviously, the envy of the world, but is an outlier because they started with a zero-covid response. Australia likewise.
tek-monkey
wanna see my snake?
The protect the weak argument is just an easy way to say I'm alright so feck everyone else.