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Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Tilly, Feb 13, 2020.
The bacon sandwich eater ripped him apart on Monday. Was a joy to see.
There's been one ready at Fauld since 1944.
So now I have caught a cold from the daughter. fingers crossed it does turn into the cough she had
Just had a call, I go back to work on the 28th. Didn't realise how much this was stressing me as I feel oddly great right now!
Current situation according to Zoe Covid-19 study. over the past 2 or 3 weeks the dark red area has spread from a few patches around South Wales, Anglesey, Merseyside, Birmingham, Leicester, Glasgow and the North East.
Do you know if those 61,878 people are currently thought to have it or are predicted to get it and if so when ?
They are currently thought to have it.
Cases have trebled so far this month. it could signal the start of a tough winter.some are calling it a second wave in reality its a continuation of the first wave as restrictions are lifted. Keep an eye on Sweden over the coming weeks to see if there long game pays dividends for them at present their cases per capita is half of the UK and steady.
I think you need to compare the UK to countries such as France or Germany. Sweden population is far more spread out than us. Try comparing Sweden to other Scandi countries and see how they compare
I think the point @cj1 was making was that Sweden didn't lockdown like most other countries rather than how the population is distributed.
I believe all of the other Scandinavian countries had lockdowns like we did.
With countries like France Germany is they went with a very similar strategy to the UK whereas Sweden went a different way. Sweden stated that lockdowns won't work in the long term and would do more harm and good. Yes not a perfect analogue but worth taking note. Lockdowns can cost lives as well as save. The UK's non covid excess deaths bare that out.
Agreed. And I think it is way to early to compare. Maybe in a year or so when we can see the full picture. At this point Sweden has fared worse than its immediate neighbours but their numbers seem better now.
At this stage the number of deaths per million population (as I can find on Google) are as follows:
Sweden - 574
Germany - 113
Finland - 61
South Korea - 51
Norway - 49
Brazil - 635
UK - 626
USA - 597
Yes current figures can only be compared and contrasted as a work in progress basis but should not be ignored. The current case fatality ratio is approx 0.3% in uk and falling so any decisions we take as a country going forward should be balanced based on cost and benefits of said actions so we can have a strategy that minimises harm.
A point to bare in mind is Sweden with its strategy is much further ahead in its disease than its neighbours and so much less likely to see a significant second wave this winter compared to its neighbours.
Sweden could follow the herd immunity strategy because of its small and well spread population and the fact it knew its well funded health service had the capacity to cope.
We tried to follow it, but soon realised our poorly funded and run down health service couldn’t cope, at least not in the major cities. Hence the late lockdown. The decision was based purely on the fact that it would have been political suicide to have dying people lying in hospital carparks with no way of treating them. To suggest we could have followed the Sweden model is pure fantasy and does not take any account of the absolute dire state our NHS was in after years of cuts and re-organisations designed to facilitate partial privatisation and not to streamline and improve patient care.
Rees-Mogg would describe this as 'carping.'
If they gave me immunity (that is they didn't lock me in a box for the rest of my life) I would quite happily put a bullet through his brain, difficult a shot as that might be with such a small target. My main concern is that I would try not to derive pleasure from doing it.
As much as I applaud your ambition, I suspect that it might be ultimately unsuccessful.
I would anticipate little reduction in the activity that we have come to expect from him.
Rather along these lines - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_the_Headless_Chicken
We had spare capacity in the nightingale hospitals that lay empty and others not even built as not needed the u turn followed concern over the negative publicity and public petrified of covid-19. The surge capacity was there if needed. Social distancing and shielding (and this time do it properly with rigerious infection control) is the best way to get through a disease which for the overwhelming majority is a mild illness.
In the short term. There are possible signs that the virus can cause long term problems even in those that have mild or no symptoms on initial infection.
Also bear in mind that the whole "Sweden went a different way" mantra doesn't bear close scrutiny.
It might not have been mandatory - some of it actually was, some was just a result of a non-dickhead populace doing what they were advised to do - but Sweden did go into lockdown, just not one quite as stringent as somewhere like Spain.
By the end of March '20, 93% of all Swedes over 70 were following guidelines to avoid crowded spaces and public transport; nursery and primary education continued as normal but all secondary and tertiary education was distance learning; 50% of the workforce was working from home; mass gatherings were restricted to 50 people; and mandatory restrictions on bars and restaurants had been enacted, imposing distancing and table service only (establishments could be, and were, closed for non-compliance). By the start of April, public transport use had declined by 50%.
Travel restrictions and restrictions on visits to nursing homes were also imposed.
And when you hear Sweden being held up as this great example of the country that 'just got on with it' and 'kept its economy open', don't forget that Swedish GDP dropped more than 8% in Q2 of this year, an economic hit that was also worse than all the rest of the Nordics.
Will they be better prepared for the second wave? From what i've read it sounds like not, but we shall soon see, what?