More rain and floods, why?

[RoadRunner]

The following is a letter submitted to the letters page of the Staffordshire Newsletter and the Express & Star (together with the image below), though it didn't get printed:

Cycling to work on Monday was at least exciting, though very wet and cold from the ankles down. The river flooded and made the cycle route from Baswich to town impassable except to the adventurous/foolhardy - not to be recommended! A hard core part is washed away.

The statistics keep rolling in: wettest 3 months, wettest and dullest June, 2 months rain in a weekend. Snow is also precipitation, and we've had plenty of that lately. A further week of rain is forecast... But why is the weather 'stuck'?

It's all down to the jet stream which is stuck to the south of the UK, rather than being north west of Scotland at this time of year. The jet stream is a band of high-altitude winds that circles the entire globe, blowing from west to east, acting as the boundary between cold wetter polar air to the north and warmer drier subtropical air to the south. It's moves in waves to the north (ridges) and south (troughs).

It's not just the UK. Most US states are suffering from drought (south of their jet stream). There have also been prolonged cold spells in Europe, heavy snows in the north-eastern U.S. and Alaska, and heat waves and flash floods in Russia.

The Arctic is warming 4 times faster than the globe. Arctic sea ice melted faster in June than ever before, and is heading for a another record breaking annual minimum. 40% gone in 30 years. The more it melts the faster the sea warms, causing more melting. There used to be alot of multi-year ice, but not any more.

The changes in the Arctic are moving & slowing the jet stream, particularly in the ice-free summers, meaning more persistent 'stuck' weather, hot & dry, or cold & wet. Also the ridges and troughs are bigger: Arctic air plunges south, tropical air penetrates north, more records for everyone! Those ridges and troughs also slow it down... Early melt in Siberia is having similar effects...

The atmosphere is changing, meteorologists are unfamiliar with what they're seeing. Please connect the dots from extreme weather...

Alot of the science above is a summarised from the following:

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic by Jennifer Francis
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/linking_weird_weather_to_rapid_warming_of_the_arctic/2501/
http://bit.ly/NEQ0oe

'Arctic Oscilliation' Behind Season's Mixed Winter Weather
http://www.npr.org/2012/02/03/146362936/arctic-oscilliation-responsible-for-mixed-winter-weather
http://n.pr/wFPwQg

 

[RoadRunner]

So I guess we need to know where the jet stream is? I understand that it moves quite slowly (part of the problem), so checking once a week might be OK?

Europe & N America, image updated daily (http://www.spireweather.co.uk/?page_id=2327):

 

[gilbert grape]

Maybe the World is evolving and we can analyze everything but have the power to change very little in the scheme of things?
As a race we seem to want to control the uncontrollable. I'm not sure that certain measures that we talk about will greatly change the course of our existince or merely delay the inevitable?

Keep calm and worry on?

 

[Hetairoi]

The melting of the polar ice cap can affect the Gulf Stream which would be far more catastrophic for our weather in this country but I agree with Gilbert that there is probably very little we can do about it.

 

[trenchfoot]

I always find it strange that faced with this sort of thing that rather than try and maybe fail that not trying at all is proposed as a reasoned course of action.

 

[Hetairoi]

No-one has said don't try and improve things just that these things are cyclical and while we are not helping it isn't all down to us.

 

[Withnail]

I have kept a cartoon by Gerald Scarfe from the first Rio Earth Summit of a baby floating in space, the Earth as it's arse swathed in a stinking nappy, crying. I can't find it online, which is a shame as i thought it rather perfect - which is why i kept it i suppose.

Weasel words may say it isn't all down to us, but the reality is that most of it really is. Like stupid babies we will sit in space, weeping to be changed, but no Mummy is coming and our podgy baby fingers cannot undo the safety pin.

Do enjoy your Day of Rest now, won't you?

 

[RoadRunner]

Thanks guys for responding. This stuff really gets to me, and it's good to talk.

I suppose the big question is 'How controllable is it?'. I totally accept that this problem is getting out of hand. Are we really prepared to accept the inevitable without a fight? To fail without trying?

On the question of cycles (not a pun), there are many natural cycles with varying periodicty. None of them can explain the trend that overlays them...

It really is no laughing matter, I have a son & daughter and 4 nephews & nieces, and I worry about their futures...

How much should/can/will the current generations do for the benefit of following generations? The current generations include grand-parents, parents and older Internet-capable children. With access to the Internet they all have a voice, and are able to have theeir say.

Oddly, I understand that the atmospheric changes (ie. the jet stream) actually have a greater effect than the gulf stream...? Hopefully such a possible change is a long way off?

Had a look for the cartoon on-line, without success. But found this: http://wn.com/pink_floyd_space_travel Brilliant 10 mins

On a good note: it seems that Shell & BP aren't going to drill in the Arctic after all? An example of people power?