Will UKIP Do Well in the General Election?

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Hetairoi

Well-Known Forumite
In my opinion, not a chance!

Only a third of those eligible to vote voted, people don't care about Europe so were willing to vote for UKIP.

Come the General Election then old tribal loyalties will kick in and they will revert to the Conservatives or Labour more out of fear of the other party than anything else.

The LibDems are a different matter, they need to get out of government and re-establish themselves as the protest party, it is noticeable that a lot of LibDems voted Green at the Euro Elections.

It would be good to have a UKIP MP but I don't see it happening!
 
henryscat

henryscat

Well-Known Forumite
I think UKIP benefitted from proportional representation in the EU election. Depending on turn out, first past the post may not be as favourable to them in a general election. I certainly don't want a UKIP gaining a foot hold, they would send the country even further down the toilet than Blair, Brown, Cameron and Clegg have. I think Lib Dems have lost an awful lot of votes for good, which I agree is likely to be the Green Party's gain.
 
kyoto49

kyoto49

Well-Known Forumite
Who knows! What I do know is that they have garnered support from millions of British people who feel the political establishment in all it's formats has abandoned them. Brilliant piece in the Guardian yesterday by Matthew Goodwin which discusses why people voted UKIP. Say whatever you like about protest votes, and accuse whoever you like of racism, but the average working class person in this country has a genuine concern about the direction we are heading, and as none of the Elite and Eton educated are taking a blind bit of notice the voters made their feelings known. Whether UKIP is the right party is a matter for conjecture, what is certain is that they are challenging the political norms and ruling elite of this country.

From the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/26/ukip-rise-no-flash-in-pan

Both of these wisdoms have now been demolished. Those who continue to argue that Ukip is little more than a flash in the pan underestimate the depths of anger among financially struggling, blue-collar and left-behind voters who are its core electorate. These voters have long felt intensely anxious over an array of perceived threats to their identity, values and way of life; from migrants and unelected Eurocrats in Brussels, to distant elites in Westminster. Never before have these working-class voters felt so disconnected from our politics, and so ready for a radical alternative. Ignored for years by a cosmopolitan, educated and progressive elite, they took a collective decision in the face of ridicule and condescension to turn out in force. They have now rejected Britain's entire political class.
 
basil

basil

don't mention the blinds
In his summing up at the end of the TV show with the Lib-Dem leader. Farage stated that the UK is currently the 6th largest economy in the world, which given our (alleged) poor monetary/fiscal performance in recent years is a remarkable position. I would suggest that all the high street bookies would give very long odds against on UKIP improving this..........
 
A

andy w

Well-Known Forumite
UKIP shouldn't be anything other than a fringe party that does relatively well at the Euro elections with the help of the PR voting system.
Something happened early last year with the Eastleigh by-election and the discrimination in Rotherham of foster parents who were deemed not fit by the local social services because of their membership of UKIP who with the publicity went on to win 150 county council seats and 23% of the vote.
The growth of UKIP can also be attributed to the internet and social media. Before the internet political parties had to get their message over by television and the newspapers and minor parties struggled to get heard, but now there is a lot more sources of news and opinions on the internet. You only have to read comment pages on newspaper web sites to see how UKIP have parked their panzers ( got to keep in spirit of things!) to see the importance of social media.
One of the headers on UKIP's facebook page a few months ago read 'The Real Opposition' and it had a ring of truth about it. For all it's shadow cabinet and spokes people Labour has failed to connect with it's traditional support and this down to their metropolitan liberal sensibilities that stops them seeing any downsides to the massive net immigration we have seen over the past 15 years and calling people who are concerned racists and bigots is counter productive.
 
Gramaisc

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
UKIP still has its share of nutters, but they have become less unprofessional - one of their leaflets from a few years ago proclaimed that - "EU countries buy more from us than we sell to them" - I waited in vain for a canvasser to explain that to me...
 
Alee

Alee

Well-Known Forumite
I know sod all about politics but.....I think nearly everyone i know voted UKIP. ...
 
A

andy w

Well-Known Forumite
For what's it worth here's a link to the Euro election result for the West Midlands region and also gives the votes for each individual council area
http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/european/2014
Every council area in Staffordshire had UKIP topping their poll. Whether these results have any significance for next year's general election I'm not too sure but it has to be noted that UKIP were successful in both traditional Labour and Conservative areas alike.
 
Withnail

Withnail

Well-Known Forumite
andy w said:
For what's it worth here's a link to the Euro election result for the West Midlands region and also gives the votes for each individual council area
http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/european/2014
Every council area in Staffordshire had UKIP topping their poll...
Click to expand...

Almost all, from a skim read, show the Greens ahead of, or on a par with, the LDs.

Thanks for the link - had been looking (somewhat half-arsedly) for something similar the other day without success. :up:
 
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andy w

Well-Known Forumite
Just got lucky on my first search.
You can see some trends with most of the West Midlands conurbation staying with Labour, traditional Tory areas to the south of Birmingham staying Tory ( the Tory vote across the country held up fairly well which surprised me).
The large councils contain a number of parliamentary seats so it's difficult to break the results down to seats, but councils like Cannock and South Staffs pretty much mirror the parliamentary seats. Stafford borough takes in a lot of Bill Cash's Stone seat as well as Stafford.
 
basil

basil

don't mention the blinds
Q do you want Scotland to be an Independent Country?...errm probably yes
Q do you want Scotland (and yourselves) to suffer financial and social hardship? ......errm no

Q do you want the UK to leave the EU? errm yeah seems like a good idea
Q do you have the faintest idea of the implications of such a decision? .....errm haven't a fuc@ing clue mate......
 
John Marwood

John Marwood

I ♥ cryptic crosswords
basil said:
Q do you want Scotland to be an Independent Country?...errm probably yes
Q do you want Scotland (and yourselves) to suffer financial and social hardship? ......errm no

Q do you want the UK to leave the EU? errm yeah seems like a good idea
Q do you have the faintest idea of the implications of such a decision? .....errm haven't a fuc@ing clue mate......
Click to expand...


Four Q
 
cbaz

cbaz

Well-Known Forumite
I think we should stay in Europe and get rid of all the individual Govs.
I know i'm being foolish, just think allot of money would be saved and were better together.
Go ahead call me what you want.
 
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