Coronavirus.

proactive

Enjoying a drop of red.
There’s a certain amount of context required with the delta variant though, and now it’s the majority of the spread covid in general…

We’re at incredibly low death numbers right now, and it stands to reason that those who are dying from it are likely to be the most vulnerable. So yeah… 12/42 being fully vaccinated makes sense as the death data is going to bias heavily towards those who have been fully vaccinated already, because those were the ones dying from it in the first place. It’s not 100% effective, it’s 95%ish, so yeah there’s still gonna be deaths from those fully vaccinated, but if this were something to be very worried about the deaths wouldn’t have fallen off a cliff.

Stay optimistic, nobody said being fully vaccinated makes you invincible, vaccines are always about the bigger picture and not the individual data points
Also don't forget that if you die, because you had terminal cancer, for instance and you also had C19, it's counted as a Covid death.
 

Cue

Well-Known Forumite
On another note does anyone know how you book your second jab if you did an Eventbrite one?
 

SketchyMagpie

Well-Known Forumite
Pretty thorough breakdown of where the current wave might take us and what the state of play is currently. Worth a read (I've included links to the graphs included where referenced but I'd recommend clicking through and reading the whole thread):

"NEW: UK’s full reopening is set to be postponed by a month due to resurgence in cases — and now hospitalisations — fuelled by the Delta variant.

Thread: first up (https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423583641210880?s=21), that core data: UK admissions, patients & ventilator bed numbers now all climbing.

An obvious initial point to make: whilst the rate of increase in cases is just as steep as it was last autumn, the hospital metrics are climbing more slowly. This is good news (!), but it comes with nuances that point in both an optimistic and pessimistic direction.

The pessimistic: until recently admissions in Wales and Northern Ireland were falling steeply, which was countering rises elsewhere and making UK totals flatter than they would otherwise be. In the last week, admissions have risen in every UK region but one: the East of England.

If we look at the same metrics for England alone we get steeper rises. There’s no way of looking at the central three red lines on this (https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423591794974720?s=21) chart and saying they’re not trending upwards. Shallower than cases, but rising nonetheless.

And here’s (https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423596513529860?s=21) where it gets most pessimistic (don’t worry, optimism coming soon): North West England has been UK’s canary down the coal mine as far as Delta is concerned, and the picture there is ... not good. Hospital metrics are rising almost as steeply as they did last year.

If those trends spread to the rest of the country, the growth rate in hospitalisations elsewhere in the UK is also likely to pick up. Now, that might not happen — it could be there are specific conditions in the NW that have made it fare especially badly — but it may well happen.

I said there would also be optimism, and here it is: The age profile of the current resurgence remains much younger than past waves, and we can see this with both cases and hospitalisations.

First, cases: so far in current resurgence, younger people have been far more likely to get infected than older (vaccinated), and that alone means we would now expect far fewer deaths-per-case. 75% fewer, to be precise, which may already mean ~750 lives saved in England in the last month.

Next, hospital admissions. Whereas during last autumn’s wave admissions initially rose at the same rate across all age groups, they’re now rising fast among young adults (age 25-44) but slowly if at all among the most elderly.

The result: a larger share of younger patients than last autumn, but far fewer elderly. An analysis of age-specific hospitalisation-fatality-rates across England’s epidemic to date suggests this will weaken the link between admission and death this time around, by about a third.

So for a given number of cases during this wave, we should see fewer hospitalisations, and for a given number of admissions, we should see fewer deaths. The links are certainly not broken, but they are weaker.

The rise in hospitalisations on its own is clearly sufficient reason to re-evaluate the June 21 full reopening date, but there’s one more piece of information that I think shows why the postponement was justified:

Even though the UK’s vaccination rollout has been among the fastest and most comprehensive worldwide, there are gaps: around *2 million* over-50s in the UK have still not had a single dose. Many of these people are still highly vulnerable to the current wave.

Added to that are ~13 million unvaccinated younger adults, and another ~8m partially vaxxed younger adults, so you can see a more transmissible variant still has plenty of fuel to prolong its spread. With that in mind, I don’t see how June 21 could have gone ahead.

So, to conclude:
• Third wave of hospital admissions clearly underway
• Data still suggest this wave should be less lethal
• But no clear sign yet of current wave subsiding
• And still millions unvaccinated
• Postponement seems the logical move"

Full thread (with additional visualisations): https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423583641210880?s=21
 
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In 2016 an outbreak of Swan Flu killed 400,000 people in the UK

Or rather that was the scenario for emergency planners at that time

Unfortunately, what was not planned for was asymptomatic infections, a release of a germ warfare designed virus without announcement, any national lockdown considerations, or any design for a furlough scheme. The Permanent Secretary was not even aware the exercise had taken place

Next

20,000 to 30,000 daily infections by mid July

Awareness

Symptoms have changed, particularly in the under 50's

Main symptoms now include - 1 A headache, 2 sore throat, 3 runny nose, 4 feeling meh

Government have failed to highlight that these are the new symptoms , therefore people are presuming they just have a bug or a cold and are not isolating, not getting tested , infecting 6 other people. Then these 6 other people infect 6 more other people.

And so it goes

We are not yet in an endemic
 

staffordjas

Well-Known Forumite
Awareness

Symptoms have changed, particularly in the under 50's

Main symptoms now include - 1 A headache, 2 sore throat, 3 runny nose, 4 feeling meh

Government have failed to highlight that these are the new symptoms , therefore people are presuming they just have a bug or a cold and are not isolating, not getting tested , infecting 6 other people. Then these 6 other people infect 6 more other people.

And so it goes
I only read about the new Indian 'Delta' variant symptoms whilst reading another forum yesterday. No wonder it's spreading so fast now with people not suspecting their "it's just a cold" could well be the latest Covid variant.

It was also mentioned that the loss of taste and smell doesn't seem to be happening with this new variant.
 

SketchyMagpie

Well-Known Forumite
Especially during hayfever season, having a runny nose is hardly going to give people cause to believe they should get a test without greater emphasis in the public messaging.
 

Withnail

Well-Known Forumite
You will get exposed to this virus.

It will either be tomorrow, next week, next month or whenever, but you will get exposed to this virus.

You can choose to do so in a controlled way, that essentially mimics childhood exposure, twice, which will make it like the other coronaviruses that give you a cold.

Or you can take your chances with an uncontrolled, mutating, wild virus, that might excite your immune system to start attacking pretty much any organ in your body, causing the kind of lung/heart/kidney damage that will be life-limiting for what passes for the life that remains to you. TBF it might not be that bad. But what if it was?

You will get exposed to this virus, you can be sure of that.

Will you be ready for it?
 

The Hawk

Well-Known Forumite
According to the Zoe app there has been a large increase in numbers over the last 10 days or so. I assume the B.1.617.2/Indian/Delta variant is now in town.

The Zoe app is showing that numbers are the highest in the 20 to 24 age group, with relatively high numbers also in the 15 to 19 age group.
 

staffordjas

Well-Known Forumite
I'm hoping to come out of this holiday covid free , just glad we've had our 2nd jabs weeks ago to give us a better fighting chance if not. Infection rates here in Poole are above the UK rate , at 90.3 / 100,000 today , and I can see why ! :ohno:
 

proactive

Enjoying a drop of red.
I'm hoping to come out of this holiday covid free , just glad we've had our 2nd jabs weeks ago to give us a better fighting chance if not. Infection rates here in Poole are above the UK rate , at 90.3 / 100,000 today , and I can see why ! :ohno:

That's 99909.7 per 100000 who don't have it.
 

Carole

Well-Known Forumite
We’re just living our lives now within the rules.

We had friends to stay for the weekend but all four of us did our tests, we’re all double jabbed.

Lovely walks around The Chase and Teddersley, a meal at The Seven Stars.

We’re still keeping our distance around young people that haven’t had the jab yet, but certainly among our age group there has been a certain amount of relaxation.
 

Lucy

Well-Known Forumite
If anyone hasn't had their second vaccination yet you should be able to bring it forward, I've just brought the OHs forward to 8 weeks and 2 days after his first one - if the Ironman wasn't on I'm sure he could have got it exactly 8 weeks apart.
 

Chick

Well-Known Forumite
If anyone hasn't had their second vaccination yet you should be able to bring it forward, I've just brought the OHs forward to 8 weeks and 2 days after his first one - if the Ironman wasn't on I'm sure he could have got it exactly 8 weeks apart.
Done, thanks for the heads up
 

littleme

250,000th poster!
We’re just living our lives now within the rules.

We had friends to stay for the weekend but all four of us did our tests, we’re all double jabbed.

Lovely walks around The Chase and Teddersley, a meal at The Seven Stars.

We’re still keeping our distance around young people that haven’t had the jab yet, but certainly among our age group there has been a certain amount of relaxation.
When I was stuck in the ambulance, the lovely paramedics were telling me how they've noticed cases have gone up really quickly over the last week and a half, and it's all people like me, 50+ who have had both their jabs. They also said lots of the PCR tests done at the drive/walk in centres are coming back with a false negative. This is mostly because patients are allowed to do the test themselves .... As I did on the Friday that I first contacted the Dr's. My test was negative, but by the Wednesday they were convinced I must have Covid as I had exactly all the symptoms.

Fortunately my next 2 tests at the hospital (done by the nurses) were also negative.

You are being wise to avoid younger people, but don't let your guard fall with us older ones either (I know you won't!).
 
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