Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan.

[tek-monkey]

This is interesting, unless you're Russian in which case its scary!

Russian parliament approves online call-up for war - BBC News

The Kremlin denies it wants to speed up mobilisation of Russian men or end widespread draft-dodging.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[tek-monkey]

Is this the start of a de-escalation?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65918754

By claiming he's hit a strategic objective he started out to meet it means he can claim he's won, then potentially stop further invasive manoeuvre's and concentrate on bolstering the areas he's stolen. Obviously Ukraine will keep fighting him, he's on their turf, but it gives him a way to save face back home whilst hoping to stop the flow of weapons into Ukraine if he stops fighting and is merely defending his current positions.

I suspect the West will keep using Ukraine as a dumping ground for old kit, if budgets mean they get to replace what they give out it actually works in their favour, but I do wonder at what point some countries will decide he took it by force so it's his now, just like we let him with Crimea? Can they even join NATO with an ongoing war? Maybe thats Putins thoughts, hope for a ceasefire where he keeps his gains that Ukraine agrees to because it gets them NATO membership? Not that I think they'll let that lie.

 

[tek-monkey]

Civil war?

 

[Withnail]

Looks like it.

Not sure Prigozhin could be considered anything like an 'upgrade', but a power vacuum could give some time to gather some space in the short to medium term.

For Ukraine - assuming it's not some sort of coordinated Russki BS - it's surely time to kick them out, keep them out, negotiate NATO membership in peacetime, and work from there.

 

[tek-monkey]

Looks like it.

Not sure Prigozhin could be considered anything like an 'upgrade', but a power vacuum could give some time to gather some space in the short to medium term.

For Ukraine - assuming it's not some sort of coordinated Russki BS - it's surely time to kick them out, keep them out, negotiate NATO membership in peacetime, and work from there.

Yeah, I'm a bit confused on this one. A wagner retreat leaves holes in defences, but if they turn around again suddenly you have foes on all sides. Wagner troop movements are reported well inside Russian territory but there is no fighting when they meet the 'interior army' so hard to say.

If he really is turning on putin he will no longer be getting paid, so his troop movements in Africa should give some indication?

 

[tek-monkey]

Interesting update

Rebel Russian mercenaries turn back short of Moscow 'to avoid bloodshed'

The Kremlin will drop charges again Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who will move to Belarus under a deal to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin led against Russia's military leadership.

www.reuters.com

 

[proactive]

Be very careful what you wish for.

 

[joshua]

The intelligence update slide every DI analyst secretly dreams of producing...

 

[tek-monkey]

Be very careful what you wish for.

I'm under no illusion that swapping one murderous bastard for another will have any long term benefits, someone who kills on a large scale purely for money is far from ideal, but the short term implications for Ukraine are huge.

And yet...
Something still feels off here? There aren't enough wagner troops involved, you'd throw everything at a move like this?

 

[proactive]

I'm under no illusion that swapping one murderous bastard for another will have any long term benefits, someone who kills on a large scale purely for money is far from ideal, but the short term implications for Ukraine are huge.

And yet...
Something still feels off here? There aren't enough wagner troops involved, you'd throw everything at a move like this?

It was more a general comment rather than aimed at you hence why I didn't quote you.

It's probably a distraction strategy, whilst the real decapitation takes place behind closed doors. Either that or yet more incompetence.

 

[Gramaisc]

The Russian equivalent of Air Force One flew from Moscow to St Petersburg this morning.

 

[joshua]

The Russian equivalent of Air Force One flew from Moscow to St Petersburg this morning.

Passenger compliment: 1 (V Putin) and one heck of a lot of cash

 

[Gramaisc]

Passenger compliment: 1 (V Putin) and one heck of a lot of cash

There is no definite truth available at the moment, I suppose.

The transponder on the plane ceased to broadcast halfway into the flight.

Who knows..?

He might try to outwit them by using the train from Portarlington?

Rumours that Deputy PM Manturov has defected to Turkey and claimed political asylum.

 

[joshua]

 

[tek-monkey]

It was more a general comment rather than aimed at you hence why I didn't quote you.

It's probably a distraction strategy, whilst the real decapitation takes place behind closed doors. Either that or yet more incompetence.

There seems to be a lack of actual fighting, is it all a show? Also he's calling out the military heads, not particularly Putin, could this be turned into a manly way to retreat, to pretend to crush a rebellion at home?

 

[The Hawk]

Big announcement expected this evening from Putin and Lukashenko............................
















Yes, they've just got married.

 

[tek-monkey]

Russia needs loads more meat for the grinder
Russia outlaws LGBT
Russia raids gay clubs and takes copies of IDs

I'm sure none of these events are linked at all.