Coronavirus.

[cj1]

Just seen a study showing that, with the AstraZeneca vaccine, protection wanes so much after 3 months that there's virtually no reduction of transmission as far as the Delta variant is concerned vs an unvaccinated person so perhaps that's also playing a part given that Delta is now the dominant variant.

Yes, although vaccination doesn't reduce transmission. It still does a really good job at preventing hospitalisation and deaths. This is why case rate doesn't tell the story of how well an area is doing. Better looking at hospitalisation rates which is still many times lower than previous waves. Full vaccination followed by natural exposure is still considered to give maximum long term protection.

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Yes, although vaccination doesn't reduce transmission. It still does a really good job at preventing hospitalisation and deaths. This is why case rate doesn't tell the story of how well an area is doing. Better looking at hospitalisation rates which is still many times lower than previous waves. Full vaccination followed by natural exposure is still considered to give maximum long term protection.

Vaccination does reduce transmission, hence why that study said it drops off after 3 months.
Something has to do something in the first place in order to not do it as well after a while.

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Regarding the hospitalisations, they're lower but still have been at around 7,000 new cases per day for the last few weeks, about half of the heights that last year's pre-Christmas wave reached (on a logarithmic scale).

When that wave had this many hospitalisations we had restrictions in place and were weeks away from lockdown and we only have around 100 less deaths per day currently than we had at that same point.

Not arguing for or against anything in terms of what should be done, those are simply relevant data points.

 

[cj1]

I ment in the long term should of made that clear, sorry

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Fair enough!

 

[Withnail]

I ment
in the long term
should of
made that clear,
sorry

(you) ment?

should of?

sorry ?

You have been consistently wrong, about almost everything, since this thread began - from the whole Sweden balls, to the Great Barrington bollocks, the Yeadon shitshow, to the 'it's now endemic' clowncall.

Why you think you might have any credibility left after the complete lack of judgement you have shown over the last year and a half is entirely baffling to me.

You should be f**king sorry.

 

[cj1]

Sweden look to finish mid table which is where they said they were likely to finish. They also said death rate will reduce over time finishing at around 0.2% CFR which looks pretty dam close to where it will end up. They have done better than the UK to date both health and wealth. I smaller hit than the UK too.
The Barrington deceleration was never implemented. If it was those at risk would of been shielded to ensure healthcare systems were not overwhelmed whilst everyone else kept the country ticking over.
Yeadon? Not sure what a West Yorkshire town got to do with it.

 

[tek-monkey]

They have done better than the UK to date both health and wealth.

I'm not sure comparing anywhere to the UK is a way to say they did well, they could have lined up random people each day and shot them and still come out better.

The Barrington deceleration was never implemented. If it was those at risk would of been shielded to ensure healthcare systems were not overwhelmed whilst everyone else kept the country ticking over.

I still don't understand how shielding could work if those working in care didn't have to vaccinate or shield too?

I must admit I'm quite torn on our current policy of let it rip. Part of me will always think letting healthy people die for no reason is wrong, but an awful lot of the people dying chose this so should you have sympathy or respect their wishes?

 

[cj1]

I'm not sure comparing anywhere to the UK is a way to say they did well, they could have lined up random people each day and shot them and still come out better.



I still don't understand how shielding could work if those working in care didn't have to vaccinate or shield too?

I must admit I'm quite torn on our current policy of let it rip. Part of me will always think letting healthy people die for no reason is wrong, but an awful lot of the people dying chose this so should you have sympathy or respect their wishes?

It's not just the UK they have done better than, there somewhere mid table so better than some worse then others on the cases and deaths.
The shielding would work best if those with the shielders shield with them too. If not the fallback option would be daily testing and PPE where this wasn't possible I.e care homes. Basically think the shielded bubble is clean and everything outside is dirty or operating theatre infection control.
By letting people become naturally exposed it thought to give wider long-term immunity possibly lifetime but not known at present. If the spike protein mutates and escapes the vaccine. Those with natural exposure may still be immune as the immune system would still recognise other parts of the virus and launch a defence. Those with Sars-cov-1 are still immune 17 years later.

 

[tek-monkey]

It's not just the UK they have done better than, there somewhere mid table so better than some worse then others on the cases and deaths.
The shielding would work best if those with the shielders shield with them too. If not the fallback option would be daily testing and PPE where this wasn't possible I.e care homes. Basically think the shielded bubble is clean and everything outside is dirty or operating theatre infection control.
By letting people become naturally exposed it thought to give wider long-term immunity possibly lifetime but not known at present. If the spike protein mutates and escapes the vaccine. Those with natural exposure may still be immune as the immune system would still recognise other parts of the virus and launch a defence. Those with Sars-cov-1 are still immune 17 years later.

We have had cases of people catching covid twice, so I'm not really sure we can class that as 'maybe lifetime' immunity? I've also not seen any studies yet on patients that contracted the first strain and their immunity to the delta variant for example, have you seen any?

As for your idea of running care homes like operating theatres, I'm a bit sceptical to say the least especially when a lot of those that won't vaccinate also insisted they couldn't wear masks. Would your solution involve mandatory PPE at all times for those in a care environment? What of those that get slightly irritated by a mask so say they are exempt, how would you handle their employment in a care home environment that now needs full PPE? I can only see that working if these people are got rid of.

 

[SketchyMagpie]

The Sweden argument? Really? At THIS point? Even Sweden's King Carl XVI Gustaf declared their approach a failure.

 

[cj1]

Any reason you haven't included France Spain Portugal Bulgaria poland Italy in the graph to name a few?

 

[tek-monkey]

Any reason you haven't included France Spain Portugal Bulgaria poland Italy in the graph to name a few?

I assumed he was comparing them to their neighbours?

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Any reason you haven't included France Spain Portugal Bulgaria poland Italy in the graph to name a few?

They weren't my graphs, they were grabbed from Twitter: https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1442043350178320387

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Any reason why you ignored the fact that Sweden's own King considers their approach a failure?

 

[cj1]

Yes, the Swedish king was critical of the policy late 2020. but the chief epidemiologist of sweden only recently said the strategy was essentially correct with lower excess mortality than other EU countries.

 

[SketchyMagpie]

Yes, the Swedish king was critical of the policy late 2020. but the chief epidemiologist of sweden only recently said the strategy was essentially correct with lower excess mortality than other EU countries.

Yes, which the above graphs contest (if you click through, you'll see that's what the source was responding to).

 

[cj1]

the below shows excess deaths from all causes. outside the 2 peaks where they still did better than others, they have generally stayed toward the bottom of the pack.

and the uk

 

[rudie111]

You can only really compare Sweden to other similar Scandinavian countries. How does it fare?

The best response I have seen to shielding the vulnerable is like having a piss free lane in a swimming pool. Nowhere in the world has managed to shield the vulnerable. It is impossible

and the Great Barrington Declaration, well if there is another bog roll shortage we call always print it off and use it to wipe our arses!

 

[SketchyMagpie]

I stuck them on ignore after my last response, sod it, I don't have time for anyone still peddling the Sweden argument at this point.

In other news, Singapore's attempt to "live with the virus" is not going well to say the least: https://t.co/nXSM7gI3Ps?amp=1

"Authorities responded [to rising cases] this week by rolling back freedoms for residents despite outpacing most advanced economies in fully vaccinating 82 per cent of its population.

With more than 2,000 daily cases, working from home has become the norm again while primary school pupils are back to home-based learning. For the next month, only two diners are allowed at restaurants and households can welcome just two visitors."