Leave or Remain?

Mikinton

Well-Known Forumite
Paddypower have UK applying to join the EU by 2027 at 4/1.....
Not a bad bet.

I can see us sending in an application if only to make our entries for European City Of Culture valid, like Turkey's re Istanbul .... but like them, our application would never be accepted.
 

basil

don't mention the blinds
"Applying" is an interesting choice of word. The French vetoed it twice the last time - they won't be even that keen, if there is a next time.

And "UK"..? Are they defining what they mean by that? The current set-up, or would some variation be allowable?

Indeed, bye bye NI .....
 

Mikinton

Well-Known Forumite
I suggested the following idea to a friend living in Northern Ireland but never really got a reply for or against ....

Given that there has to be a hard* border between the UK and the EU, they should hold a referendum in Northern Ireland whether that border is between Northern Ireland and England/Scotland/Wales or whether it's between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Let Northern Ireland decide whether it wants to retain EU trade regulations or move with the rest of the UK.

I reckon they'd choose the former .... and it would have the added attraction of fecking the DUP over.

Thoughts?

* - "hard" meaning "harder" than what already exists.
 

The Hawk

Well-Known Forumite
I'm beginning to think the easy answer would be:
  1. The UK withdraws its application to leave the EU; and
  2. England (& Wales, if it wants to) leaves the UK and, by default, the EU.
Scotland keeps its wish to remain in the EU, Northern Ireland keeps its open border with the Republic, and England (+Wales?) leaves without paying €100 billion or whatever.
 

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
I suggested the following idea to a friend living in Northern Ireland but never really got a reply for or against ....

Given that there has to be a hard* border between the UK and the EU, they should hold a referendum in Northern Ireland whether that border is between Northern Ireland and England/Scotland/Wales or whether it's between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Let Northern Ireland decide whether it wants to retain EU trade regulations or move with the rest of the UK.

I reckon they'd choose the former .... and it would have the added attraction of fecking the DUP over.

Thoughts?

* - "hard" meaning "harder" than what already exists.
There have been "moves" to control movement between the island of Ireland and GB for many years - but nobody has had the nerve to mention it to the Unionists/Loyalists. Whatever happens, there will be nothing to stop EU nationals from entering the Republic and strolling into the North, with (currently) no real further checks on their movements once they're in the UK. Without the 'sea border', there will be little plausible control over that.

Good luck to anybody trying to explain that proposal to the Unionist/Loyalist community.

This government is not in the business of annoying the DUP. They are their only "friends".

Having said that, it is the only sensible option. But, that doesn't really matter up there.
 

Mikinton

Well-Known Forumite
I also posed the following questions to my friend in Northern Ireland, but again didn't get an answer ....

If England starts producing chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-fed beef, who stops it getting into the ROI and maybe even France, where I'm guessing it would be illegal. Is there an expectation that it would never enter Northern Ireland in the first place, or would it be stopped at the border with the Republic. And if it got into ROI, what's to stop it entering France and the rest of the EU?
 

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
I also posed the following questions to my friend in Northern Ireland, but again didn't get an answer ....

If England starts producing chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-fed beef, who stops it getting into the ROI and maybe even France, where I'm guessing it would be illegal. Is there an expectation that it would never enter Northern Ireland in the first place, or would it be stopped at the border with the Republic. And if it got into ROI, what's to stop it entering France and the rest of the EU?
Asking practical questions about Northern Ireland is not often a fruitful exercise. Image and presentation are for more important than substance.

In the days when the border was reasonably 'hard', for various reasons, there were, I believe, only sixteen* legal crossing points. There was much smuggling, in both directions, even with much higher levels of 'security' than there is available now. It will be entertaining, whatever happens.


The final trade deal needs to be agreed by all 27 remaining countries - if only one feels hard-done-by under the terms of it, they can veto the whole deal.

The EU has current external land borders with many states, they may have some ideas from those.


*Edit - From a 1973 Home Office report, when they were worried about more than the odd dodgy chicken - There are 303 miles of the border. There are 20 approved roads, 187 approved roads and 17 concession routes… The facilities for crossing the border are much greater than the number of cross-border roads. In particular there are 30 miles of water, numerous lanes and smugglers’ pads and border lands which are easily negotiable on foot.

Further edit - after 187, in the extract above, it clearly should say "unapproved roads".
 
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Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
The EU has current external land borders with many states, they may have some ideas from those.
Russia.
Belarus.
Ukraine.
Moldova.
Turkey.
Macedonia.
Albania.
Serbia.
Bosnia. --- This would be likely to be the grouping where "Brexit means Brexit" would require the UK to end up.

San Marino.
Vatican City.
Monaco.
Lichtenstein.
Switzerland.
Andorra.
Norway. --- These all have various arrangements making borders not much of a real practical issue.

Northern Cyprus - not a loose border, by any means

Morocco (possibly, if the Spanish territories count as EU - anyway, they have fully fenced borders.)

And a lot of French overseas territories are in the EU, but not physically connected enough to cause practical border issues.

There may be some other anomalies somewhere..
 

Mikinton

Well-Known Forumite
Anything analogous to Northern Ireland?

How about Kaliningrad, which is part of Russia but only has borders with EU members Poland and Lithuania? I wonder what their borders are like.
 

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
Anything analogous to Northern Ireland?

How about Kaliningrad, which is part of Russia but only has borders with EU members Poland and Lithuania? I wonder what their borders are like.
This is the main crossing point into Poland. It's a bit more divorced from Russia than NI is from GB.

BDJ1GtB.png


It's sort of thing that you had between Germany and the Czech Republic before they joined up. Not much obstruction in the early hours, but it could be difficult at busy times.
 

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
Mmm, there are people in NI who are more divorced from the Republic than they are from anywhere else in the whole world, with the possible exception of Vatican City.
 

Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
Britain Elects‏@britainelects 1h1 hour ago

Northern Irish public: "People should be prepared to accept border controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain if agreed in the Brexit negotiations between the Gov and the EU":

Agree: 49% Disagree: 39%

via @IpsosMORI
Northern Ireland expects to be funded by the UK as the price of their loyalty - that has been going on for as long as people can remember. They see no reason why it should stop now.

The third that disagree are, essentially, the DUP support base - I would send Boris to explain it to them.
 
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