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Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Tilly, Feb 13, 2020.
thank you little me x
I try not to have common friends, only special ones.
Attend Chapel when you can...
This, i don't mind saying, annoys the sh!t out of me.
I'm now going to post a graph - and i'm going to make some comments about it.
Here is the graph -
- and we have all now seen a graph. None of us have done any 'research' - the man (and yes it was a man, he's called Darren) who made this graph did the research necessary to make it, and then made it. And now we have all seen it. Yes? We're not special. Then let's continue...
It is an interesting graph for many reasons; some of which are quite blithe, others quite important, but i want us all to be on the same page here as we look at it.
So, first things first, what are we looking at? I know it sounds easy but some people don't speak 'graph', and there's quite a lot to it, so let's translate it. There are five things going on -
the shaded blue area is the spread of the death rate per thousand of the last ten years
the lowest death rate per annum over those ten years is the bottom line of the shaded blue area
the highest death rate per annum over those ten years is the top line of the shaded blue area
the blue line is the median death rate - the middle of the rates - over the last ten years
the black line is the death rate in 2020
Probably the most interesting thing about the graph is the realisation that almost nobody dies @ Christmas. And the mortifying revelation that the registrars also being off accounts for this blip in accounting, hence the rise in Week 1 when they catch up, and also accounts for the subsequent troughs and peaks of the other Bank Holidays (May/Aug) of the year - i won't apologise for finding funny.
But let us return to the meat of our ^Market Square musers.
Just to be clear here, the x axis is Week x of the year. Now you might notice a slight anomaly from week 13 (beginning March 23rd) to week 22 (ending May 31st).
Bearing in mind that this is plotted on ten years worth of death rate data, you're going to have to come up with a pretty good argument to suggest why, at week beginning April 13th this year, twice as many people were dying every week than had hitherto done in that week for the last ten years. Moreover, you are going to have to explain why there are, so far, c.66,000 excess deaths recorded this year than would be expected over a five year average.
Now i have an explanation for it, what's yours?
SHUT THE F*CK UP - MASK THE F*CK UP - GROW THE F*CK UP
Enough now, let's get on with beating this, what?
If there are any graph fans out there, there are a few other interesting things about the ^above that i didn't want to get swallowed up in the whole righteous anger vibe, though are probably a little bit more important.
So i'm just going to post it again to make it easier to refer to -
Now one of the things early on was to suggest that many of those that died in the first wave would have died anyway - which we would be seeing now with super low death rates closing the year out.
This is obviously not happening, though it may be a feature of death rates through 2021.
The real kicker here is that after an absurdly high death rate through March/April/May, this years tracked a little below median until September, then overtook the ten year maximum to start to upturn sharply just weeks ago.
Not only are we not not dying, we're dying even more than we were before.
Why are they taking forever to officially anounce tier 2?
I'm guessing it's not that urgent then Eh?
Bit like wearing face-masks 6 months later
Last night friend of mine said we go into Tier 2 from midnight Friday.
I asked her where/when it had been confirmed and she said that the director of public health on BBC news had just said so.
However, I’ve googled and still can’t find anything about it anywhere.
An official announcement is expected later I have read.
I saw him (Staffordshire Director of Public Health) on bbc news last night. He actually said we’d be going “into tier 2 later this week, it’ll be officially announced tomorrow (today) but it’s expected to come into force at midnight Friday”. So nothing official yet but it looks like it’ll be in place for Saturday.
Can anyone point me in the direction of any evidence that proves that tier 2 makes any positive difference to a reduction in the number of infections?
None of the tiers will will they? Lockdown is really the only way.
Whilst I do not disagree with you, that's only opinion, not evidence.
No, you are right, but even in tier 3 we can socialise - we can still go into pubs and restaurants. This is a really interesting graphic on how that means how much it'll spread indoors. https://english.elpais.com/society/...he-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Is it possibly too early to see if the tiers have worked? Cases are still going up but much of that infection will have been prior to the invent of them.
if people sticked to not mixing with other households, you'd think it would work, but people won't
In theory on paper it should help,but i have my doubts
I think people don't get how this "support bubble" works either, and this bubble to them is a big group of friends
I'm probably heading into Tier 3. I'm not surprised. Most likely shortly after they've decided there will be a Tier 4 we'll go into that as well. Amazingly my parents village whose infection rate is triple my areas will only just be going into Tier 2 It's almost as if their area is better at negotiating than mine...
From my and Birmingham's perspective the difference is so negligible, we are going up a tier. It's not evidence as such, but if it had made a positive difference we wouldn't be going up.
Well the way I see it kids/unis will give it to each other, then go back home spread it to the family's... pretty sure that's the main source of the start of this "second wave" not the hospitality sector
Some people certainly see that as a factor in the Belgian experience.
Tiers are all very well, but what matters is what people actually do and don't do.
We could say it started in The Alps, or in China. Of course it starts somewhere and that's why the locked a lot of the unis down. Now it's out in the general public do you really want to be sitting on the next table to someone who has it in a enclosed room?
Well if it's with people you live with (which are the rules) as long as they're stuck to, I don't see a issue?- most places are very safe distance-wise from others. - Or am I wrong? I thought it was household or "bubble" only, no mixing indoors at all.
the issue becomes when people start bluffing saying yeah we all live together and it's a group of 6 mates
it wasn't really much of a problem when they first opened again because the cases was very low, and remainded like that until uni's schools etc opened up again. (so it's not there fault as much as the goverment try and scapegoat them, hence the 10pm closes which just spreads it more on the streets when everyone is out at same time)
Something like 3-4% of the spread has come from restaurants and pubs etc
Look at the infographic in the link I posted. Even if you were staying socially distant the vapours will disperse throughout the building unless it's very well ventilated.