After the love has gone......

[citricsquid]

i dont think it will take as long as people fear. we currently have a trade agreement with the eu. the hole thing doesn't need to be negotiated on just the bits we disagree on. i see 2 years being long enough as it is in nether side interest to prolong the negotiations.

The EU negotiate (using their some ~550 trade negotiators) trade deals for the union, then each member of the union is covered under those trade deals. Leaving the EU means we won't be covered by those trade deals any more; we could say to each country "please can we have the same deal that you gave to the EU?" but because the UK is much smaller than the EU we won't be "worth" such favourable terms, so it's unlikely any country will just give us the same deal they've given to the EU and so lots of negotiating will need to happen. We could ask to keep the same trade deal within the union (trading with France for example) but that doesn't cover many countries we trade with. Trade deals can take many many years to negotiate, experts on trade negotiation have said it could take at least a decade.

Worth noting also that the UK does not have any trade negotiators... as a member of the EU we don't need them, so not only do we need to negotiate these deals, we need to hire a lot of people to do it. The director of the Vote Leave campaign Dominic Cummings said this:

Q: How do you think our trade arrangements with the rest of the world will evolve if we leave the EU?

Cummings says the UK will get a seat on the WTO and have the ability to negotiate its own trade deals.

Q: Does the civil service have the ability to negotiate these deals?

Cummings says there are huge problems with the way Whitehall works. He would not be confident with the Foreign Office negotiating anything.

These guys can’t negotiate their way out of a paper bag.

So in the short term there would be a problem.

Q: So relying on them to negotiate new trade deals is a bit of a stretch?

Cummings says this is part of a broader problem. It would be wrong to think leaving the EU will solve all our problems.

Generally speaking, the training of civil servants is “appalling”, he says.

 

[Gramaisc]

Worth noting also that the UK does not have any trade negotiators...

Tony Blair has hinted that he could be available to aid the exit strategy - (this is not a joke - well, it is, but it's true)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...role-as-brexit-negotiator-in-eu-talks-that-w/

No fly zone over the Saarland could be a vote-winner.

 

[citricsquid]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.

A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate.

The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect.

 

[Gramaisc]

Tarzan's not keen on Boris.

This is one of the comments below it - This BBC sounds eerily like the CBC; elitists, racists, and Marxist, oh ya and lives off the tit of government. - Michael Heseltine is a Marxist? Well, he did employ Tariq Ali for a while...

 

[John Marwood]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-brexit-might-not-happen-at-all

 

[hop]

i dont think it will take as long as people fear. we currently have a trade agreement with the eu. the hole thing doesn't need to be negotiated on just the bits we disagree on. i see 2 years being long enough as it is in nether side interest to prolong the negotiations.

That is not the case at all, the economists I met were saying they expected it to take over a decade and they were very intelligent people. Unfortunately for the UK most of these agreements do not cover services and the vast part of our GDP is from services rather than manufacturing. If passporting rights cannot be agreed for the banks London will suffer, which in turn means the whole country will suffer.

The most interesting aspect is perhaps that Switzerland has a trading agreement and is outside the EU but had to accept full freedom of movement. The swiss voted against freedom of movement and this need to be resolved around January 2017. It is therefore widely believed that article 50 will not be signed until after we have had a chance to see what kind of deal the swiss manage to negotiate.

 

[shoes]

i still think everything will work out well in the long run as we negotiate trade deals with europe and the rest of the world. it time people started to focus on the positive.

 

[cj1]

cannot believe the amount of negativity on here. agree or disagree the people have made their decision and we need to get on with it. although i still don't believe we will leave the eu. the past has shown us when european union get an answer they don't like they ask again until they get the answer they want. if we do leave i believe we will remain close friends with europe with a free trade agreement and also free trade agreements with the likes of usa, canada, india, new zealand and australia to name a few. life outside the eu isn't as dire as people make out

 

[proactive]

cannot believe the amount of negativity on here. agree or disagree the people have made their decision and we need to get on with it. although i still don't believe we will leave the eu. the past has shown us when european union get an answer they don't like they ask again until they get the answer they want. if we do leave i believe we will remain close friends with europe with a free trade agreement and also free trade agreements with the likes of usa, canada, india, new zealand and australia to name a few. life outside the eu isn't as dire as people make out

But how is it all going to be settled, how long will it take and is there anyone in a position of power in this country with the political will to do it?

Leadership and direction have been thrown to the wind in the past week and there is no prospect of them making a comeback anytime soon.

 

[tek-monkey]

cannot believe the amount of negativity on here. agree or disagree the people have made their decision and we need to get on with it. although i still don't believe we will leave the eu. the past has shown us when european union get an answer they don't like they ask again until they get the answer they want. if we do leave i believe we will remain close friends with europe with a free trade agreement and also free trade agreements with the likes of usa, canada, india, new zealand and australia to name a few. life outside the eu isn't as dire as people make out

Define free trade? Of course we'll be able to trade with them under WTO conditions, but the EU are (and have always been) very vocal on the point that nobody has access to the single market without freedom of migration and adhering to EU laws. Can't imagine them making a special allowance for us, why would they?

 

[Gramaisc]

I would like to see a bit more than belief.

 

[cj1]

germany alone loose 3/4 million jobs if free trade deal is not secured our trade is very important to them germany is a very powerful member of the block. there is broad agreement that free moment of goods finance and services is good for both sides. the major sticking point is free movement of people as this is unacceptable to the british electorate. are there any other free trade agreements where the free movement of people is a must?

 

[shoes]

cannot believe the amount of negativity on here. agree or disagree the people have made their decision and we need to get on with it. although i still don't believe we will leave the eu. the past has shown us when european union get an answer they don't like they ask again until they get the answer they want. if we do leave i believe we will remain close friends with europe with a free trade agreement and also free trade agreements with the likes of usa, canada, india, new zealand and australia to name a few. life outside the eu isn't as dire as people make out

lol

 

[shoes]

the major sticking point is free movement of people as this is unacceptable to the disgusting, pathetic, racist, xenophobic narrow minded little englanders are there any other free trade agreements where the free movement of people is a must?

Fixed

 

[hop]

cannot believe the amount of negativity on here. agree or disagree the people have made their decision and we need to get on with it. although i still don't believe we will leave the eu. the past has shown us when european union get an answer they don't like they ask again until they get the answer they want. if we do leave i believe we will remain close friends with europe with a free trade agreement and also free trade agreements with the likes of usa, canada, india, new zealand and australia to name a few. life outside the eu isn't as dire as people make out

It's not very often that I agree with a Frenchman but I have to content that Charles du Gaulle was correct. He never wanted Britain to join the EU stating that the British were too in debt and dependant upon imports and he did a good job of keep us out. After his death we sneaked in and the decided to wreck the party.

Perhaps you might want to consider that 70% of conservative voters are against the EU in part due to misreporting in the 80s-90s by a journalist writing inflammatory articles called Boris Johnston.

All of the leadership contenders have said they will go ahead with brexit and due to an act of parliament there will be no election until 2020. It takes 2 years for us to leave and it is currently 2016, there is more than enough time for this to go ahead and unlike the liberal press all assumptions are that it will go ahead.

 

[hop]

there is broad agreement that free moment of goods finance and services is good for both sides.

I don't know planet you are living on but the French are saying there will be no passporting rights for Financial services firms to trade freely across the EU. Germany and France have a lot to gain from taking financial services away from the UK.

 

[tek-monkey]

the major sticking point is free movement of people as this is unacceptable to the british electorate. are there any other free trade agreements where the free movement of people is a must?

Doesn't matter what other trade deals there are out there, the deal with the EU is very simply if your goods and money can move freely so can your people. If we want to be in the single market we accept immigration, otherwise we negotiate a deal on trade tariffs to be applied. There is nothing stopping us trading with the EU, it'll just cost us rather than being free.

Not big on financial markets but read something about us not being able to clear euros anymore?

 

[Gramaisc]

germany alone loose 3/4 million jobs if free trade deal is not secured our trade is very important to them germany is a very powerful member of the block. there is broad agreement that free moment of goods finance and services is good for both sides. the major sticking point is free movement of people as this is unacceptable to the british electorate. are there any other free trade agreements where the free movement of people is a must?

Lets see how the Swiss get on - https://www.sem.admin.ch/sem/en/home/themen/fza_schweiz-eu-efta.html .

It's not very often that I agree with a Frenchman but I have to content that Charles du Gaulle was correct. He never wanted Britain to join the EU stating that the British were too in debt and dependant upon imports and he did a good job of keep us out. After his death we sneaked in and the decided to wreck the party.

Perhaps you might want to consider that 70% of conservative voters are against the EU in part due to misreporting in the 80s-90s by a journalist writing inflammatory articles called Boris Johnston.

All of the leadership contenders have said they will go ahead with brexit and due to an act of parliament there will be no election until 2020. It takes 2 years for us to leave and it is currently 2016, there is more than enough time for this to go ahead and unlike the liberal press all assumptions are that it will go ahead.

Some of us can remember de Gaulle vetoing UK membership twice for exactly this reason.

Do I remember the Single Market being held fondly by Margaret Thatcher? It seems odd to abandon it with no real successor plan.


Elsewhere on here, @John Marwood seems to be looking for a change of car, I believe that he currently has a car - I will suggest that he agrees to swap it for an unspecified car to be received at some unspecified time in the future. - and I'll get Arthur Daley to source it for him.

 

[hop]

Not big on financial markets but read something about us not being able to clear euros anymore?

At the moment nothing has changed and Sadiq Khan is trying his damnedest to ensure that financial passporting agreements are in place.
The Foreign Exchange business is mainly run out of London. FX is $2 trillion a year business most of it trading in Euros. At the moment due to having a passport to trade any European product this can be run form London.

Our course one of the reasons the Scots are keen to remain in the EU is they might be able to take a great deal of banking / finance trades from London.

 

[John Marwood]

I'm considering my position