Coronavirus.

The Hawk

Well-Known Forumite
The vaccine is proposed to be dished out in 11 waves. under 18's will not get it along with none venerable under 50's care workers and care homes will be some of the first to get it. The reason not to vaccinate half the population is the risk of covid is so low vaccinating these people could tip the risk benefit scales the other way
Strange then that other countries have, based on scientific evidence, identified vaccinating the young as vital to stop the spread of the virus, even if they do not have a high risk of having severe symptoms. Even more strange when much of that scientific evidence originated in this country. https://academic.oup.com/jlb/article/7/1/lsaa050/5860822
 

Gadget

Well-Known Forumite
Spawn3's test was negative as we thought it would be. Relief to Spawn2 who can now go back to college. Lesson learned though. The first 'I don't feel well', sniffle or anything and she's staying home till she feels better. If she has to have another test It'll be because she actually needs a test as I can't put her through that again cause she has a cold.
 

Glam

Mad Cat Woman
Spawn3's test was negative as we thought it would be. Relief to Spawn2 who can now go back to college. Lesson learned though. The first 'I don't feel well', sniffle or anything and she's staying home till she feels better. If she has to have another test It'll be because she actually needs a test as I can't put her through that again cause she has a cold.
:hug::hug:
 

cj1

Well-Known Forumite
Strange then that other countries have, based on scientific evidence, identified vaccinating the young as vital to stop the spread of the virus, even if they do not have a high risk of having severe symptoms. Even more strange when much of that scientific evidence originated in this country. https://academic.oup.com/jlb/article/7/1/lsaa050/5860822
Perhaps the government's plan is to let the virus slow burn through the healthy population whilst shielding the vulnerable population through vaccine.
 

Noah

Well-Known Forumite
Local councils are instructed to set up local restrictions so if there is an epidemic it is their fault. You are instructed to wash your hands, wear a mask, keep a distance etc so if you get covid it is your fault for not complying with the instructions. In no way is it Boris or the Governments fault, nothing to do with them, they are not responsible.
 
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Gramaisc

Forum O. G.
Excel is not a database, excel is not a database.

I have to tell my colleagues that a lot, but then they aren't data experts...
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rudie111

Well-Known Forumite
Perhaps the government's plan is to let the virus slow burn through the healthy population whilst shielding the vulnerable population through vaccine.

On current rate of spread how many years do you expect that to take?
 

Cue

Well-Known Forumite
Strange then that other countries have, based on scientific evidence, identified vaccinating the young as vital to stop the spread of the virus, even if they do not have a high risk of having severe symptoms. Even more strange when much of that scientific evidence originated in this country. https://academic.oup.com/jlb/article/7/1/lsaa050/5860822

Because who cares if the young and non-vulnerable under-50s get it and wind up with long-lasting respiratory issues and become a burden on the NHS right?

It’s never been the fatality rate that scared me, I’m only in my late 20s. It’s whether my lung capacity is going to drop through the floor for the next few years.
 

cj1

Well-Known Forumite
On current rate of spread how many years do you expect that to take?
Sweden believe approximately 2 year's social distancing would be required from start to finish at that point you could begin to lift restrictions and infections would continue at low levels in perpetuity. Bear in mind that up to 60% of the population could have cross-immunity from other coronavirus infections which would shorten heard immunity timelines.more research is needed in this field but early signs suggest this cross-immunity is ineffective if the individual has low vitamin d levels which unfortunately for the UK is approximately 70% of the population.
 

The Hawk

Well-Known Forumite
Is herd immunity proven for this strain?
I think very little, if anything, has been proven for COVID-19.

The probability is that we already have all the answers to this virus, we just need time to work out which answers are the right answers.

In the meantime, we have a choice between high impact actions that slow the spread down and buy us time to find those right answers, or we go for a high risk strategy that may or may not work. I find the herd immunity approach an interesting one and it's certainly one that is worth considering, once we have developed enough treatments to negate the worst effects of this virus.

That said, I still believe a vaccine announcement is imminent (next few weeks) and that will feature heavily in any revised strategy.
 

rudie111

Well-Known Forumite
I think very little, if anything, has been proven for COVID-19.

The probability is that we already have all the answers to this virus, we just need time to work out which answers are the right answers.

In the meantime, we have a choice between high impact actions that slow the spread down and buy us time to find those right answers, or we go for a high risk strategy that may or may not work. I find the herd immunity approach an interesting one and it's certainly one that is worth considering, once we have developed enough treatments to negate the worst effects of this virus.

That said, I still believe a vaccine announcement is imminent (next few weeks) and that will feature heavily in any revised strategy.

Agreed. I see no other way out of this.
 

cj1

Well-Known Forumite
A vaccine is likely to only be a way out for wealthy countries with a likely rrp of $15-30 per person at least, many poorer populations will be unable to afford it. Humanity's ability to eradicate global diseases is limited with smallpox being one notable exception. If the uk government choose not to vaccinate the healthy population then people will have the decision of being at risk of gaining the infection at some point in their lives. ie living with the risk or paying to have a private vaccination. And the majority don't bother with a private flu vaccine despite being available for less than a tenner.
 

rudie111

Well-Known Forumite
A vaccine is likely to only be a way out for wealthy countries with a likely rrp of $15-30 per person at least, many poorer populations will be unable to afford it. Humanity's ability to eradicate global diseases is limited with smallpox being one notable exception. If the uk government choose not to vaccinate the healthy population then people will have the decision of being at risk of gaining the infection at some point in their lives. ie living with the risk or paying to have a private vaccination. And the majority don't bother with a private flu vaccine despite being available for less than a tenner.

Seems to me we have 2 options, get the vaccine out there or live with restrictions to avoid exponential growth in positive numbers
 
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