Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan.

basil

don't mention the blinds
20220303_185941.jpg
 

joshua

Well-Known Forumite
Interesting read from Wood McKenzie:-

Filippenko said: “If Russian exports to Europe are disrupted, things could obviously get a lot worse. Europe may be able to cope if supply disruptions are limited to Ukraine transit. It would have to pull every lever in the energy system to keep the lights on – reducing gas burn and cranking up mothballed nuclear and coal plants; maximising indigenous gas production and pipeline imports; persuading Asian buyers to use coal and free up LNG.

“But this would only be a temporary solution to get through the summer and would leave Europe with perilously low storage volumes going into winter 2022/23 and risks demand disruptions. Winter prices next year could be higher than 2021/22.”

She added: “If all Russian gas is cut off, Europe would have no chance of coping. Were all gas flows to stop today, Europe could well muddle through in the short term, given higher storage inventories and low summer demand.

“But in the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn’t be rebuilt through the summer. We’d be facing a catastrophic situation of gas storage being close to zero for next winter. Prices would be sky high. Industries would need to shut down. Inflation would spiral. The European energy crisis could very well trigger a global recession.”

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/nord_stream...

And that's why we can't have a proper fight with Putin.
And he has been watching and waiting while the politicians of Europe did his work for him, with some funding to anti-fracking groups to help the process along.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/1...

He has been playing the long game while our politicians were focused on whatever was trending on Twitter.
 

tek-monkey

wanna see my snake?
Whilst I don't doubt Russia has always done what it can to keep customers (and buying our government seems a great way) I'm not too sure that fracking in the UK itself is worth it when each field seems at best to have 5 years supply (based on UK usage) and we only have 4 of them. Is that a normal amount to go after? I assumed the infrastructure would be considered overkill for the short life but I guess you use it alongside other sources and it runs for longer.

 

tek-monkey

wanna see my snake?
Anyone else feel something is off with this invasion? Russia is usually much better prepared, this one they seem to screw up all the time. They haven't even done sophisticated cyber attacks, their main focus seems to propaganda on the home front to make the locals think they Got Ukraine Done.

Is it that the soldiers are unwilling? That they rarely fight people who fight back? Part of me still thinks its a resource grab whilst ensuring they are hated enough to make a new iron curtain easier.
 

SketchyMagpie

Well-Known Forumite
Most of what I've heard on the radio this week in terms of analysis has suggested that Putin (who may or may not be reacting rashly as a response to his brush with covid and thinking about his legacy) was told Ukraine could be taken within a few days and was not prepared for what has transpired and many of the Russian soldiers are just so brainwashed that they've been stunned at the response of the civilians as they believed they would be seen as liberators.
 

tek-monkey

wanna see my snake?
I guess he saw the taliban walk back into Afghanistan and figured it'd work that way for him too? And we let him take crimea so we'd also turn a blind eye on this one. He's spent years removing his reliance on external food supplies, whilst pushing our reliance on his oil, to ensure we'llbe too scared to really harm him. I guess as renewables gain traction his stranglehold loosens, another reason to strike sooner?
 

Withnail

Well-Known Forumite
Being treated like shit corrupts.

Being continually treated like shit corrupts completely.

So when you get told to maintain this fleet of vehicles without the wherewithal to do so, you do what you can, but only as much as you can do.

And when you get shit for not doing it properly, you stop doing it at all. And then when it fails you shrug your shoulders.

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
 

tek-monkey

wanna see my snake?
What is our country doing? Why are we stood on the world stage telling everyone 'do something' with our pants round our ankles doing absolutely nothing ourselves. Does Johnson think other countries buy his inane waffle like the British public do? We're literally helping the Russians by giving them safe space to hide their assets, promising them time to get everything squirelled away before we come looking, under the guise of needing new legislation to do what EU countries already could and therefore we could too.

It's embarrassing that, just like Americans with the Trump administration, we are judged by his actions.
 

SketchyMagpie

Well-Known Forumite
I don't know what dismays me more about Farage's new 'Net Zero Referendum' campaign, the whole 'Turkeys voting for Christmas' vibe or the fact there's a damned good chance the public actually would vote against environmental targets.
 
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